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Toward a War in Europe? An Analysis of the Escalation Trajectory in the Ukraine Conflict

Toward a War in Europe? An Analysis of the Escalation Trajectory in the Ukraine Conflict

BRIEF SUMMARY

This paper examines several dimensions of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and explores the events that could most likely trigger a war between Russia and NATO countries. In the introduction, the author discusses 30 years of political rivalry between pro-Western and pro-Russian parties in Ukraine, which led to the first invasion in 2014. After this first wave of escalation in Ukraine, the paper offers a deeper dive into the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine by examining the continuous escalation trajectory of the conflict. More specifically, the author analyzes several components of the escalation such as military operations, weaponry, sanctions, propaganda and rhetoric, territory surveillance, population control, and international support/reach out. Finally, the paper explores the possible direction
of this escalation in terms of triggers that could expand the conflict by drawing European countries on the battlefield.

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