The financial and economic consequences of the US tightening sanctions and the blockade of Iranian ports are visible in the plummeting value of the Iranian currency. Together with Britain and France joining in efforts to close the loopholes that allowed Iranian government to skirt all restrictive measures, the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon face a financial meltdown that is bound to trigger another round of street demonstrations in the country. This time though it may be different.
Last January 8 and 9, tens of thousands of Iranian protestors were gunned down in the streets by the security forces. Nobody knows the exact number but figures of 50,000 and above have been cited by international outlets including President Trump. The bloody crackdown marked a turning point in Iranian politics rendering reconciliation between the people and the current regime a near impossibility. ‘Reform’ of the system from within has now disappeared as a viable option and the focus seems to have shifted to the demise of the Islamic Republic in its entirety. This renders people’s protest into an existential challenge for the religious establishment in Tehran that has ruled since 1979.
The coming weeks and months may see an escalation of military confrontation in the Persian Gulf. As the clerical regime feels the increasingly paralyzing impact of measures its fight to survive may turn more erratic and unpredictable. More missiles may be fired at Persian Gulf countries and even more repressive measures may be adopted to silence dissenters at home. Neither, however, will be able to salvage it from certain downfall. Explosion of public anger will most likely be followed by an implosion of internal forces making fundamental change inevitable.
Financial meltdown will not be the only problem for the clerical rulers in Iran. Military setbacks in the on and off war with the US and the gradual loss of control of Strait of Hormoz has further discredited the Islamic Republic amongst her own supporters. The much-diminished power of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the ousting of Assad in Syria and the removal of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela have significantly reduced the Iranian regime’s leverage internationally. With empty coffers, a hostile population at home, a losing war and a much-reduced leverage internationally the Islamic Republic is struggling to survive.
“Treasury Secretary Bessent says US entering ‘endgame’ with Iran.”
The presence of a credible alternative for leadership of the country has long appeared on the political horizon. Crown Price Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Late Shah of Iran, has sufficient following amongst Iranians in and out of the country and enjoys enough international gravitas to lead the transition to a stable democracy in Iran. His calls are heeded by Iranians and there is no one of remotely comparable stature in the opposition.
“The only alternative for the future of Iran is the prince.”
Iran, the region and the wider world need calm and stability after long decades of constant upheavals. The Iran-Iraq war, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the re/emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the lingering Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the continuing turmoil in Lebanon, the Houthis and much more have wrecked the Middle East for years. Fundamental change in the Iranian political system would eradicate the source of tension that feeds the lingering or recurring regional hostilities.
