The Legacy of a Disruptive Presidency: From Trump 1.0 to 2.0
This report documents a webinar hosted by Strategy International on July 29th 2026, examining the legacy of Donald Trump’s first presidential term and its relationship to developments during his second term. The session opened with framing remarks from the moderator, followed by a structured presentation from the co-authors of the 2024 volume The Legacy of the Trump Administration: A Disruptive Presidency: Dr. Michael Grossman, Prof. David Cohen, and Prof. Eric Matthews. The floor was then opened for the panelists to present analytical positions on the continuity and divergence between the two terms, before concluding with an interactive audience Q&A.
The central analytical question addressed throughout was whether the Trump presidency should be understood as merely disruptive — generating noise and controversy without lasting structural effect — or as genuinely consequential in the sense associated with transformative presidencies. The panel’s consensus was that the first term was consequential chiefly in two respects: the capture of the Republican Party as an institution, and a lasting shift in the tone and norms of American political rhetoric. The panel further argued that the second term differs from the first primarily in the removal of internal constraints that had previously moderated executive action, and that this shift has accelerated both domestic institutional change and a broader erosion of international confidence in the predictability of U.S. leadership.
The report concludes with a set of questions for further research, including the durability of party capture absent its founding figure, the distinction between customary political norms and binding law, and the conditions under which U.S. international credibility might be restored.
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