Q: Are we on the brink of a regional war?
A: I believe we are heading for a military confrontation that could lead to a wider and longer conflict in the short run, but not necessarily. Israel will hit Iran and will attempt to take out economic and industrial complexes in the country. Considering Iran’s rather dated military hardware it will not be in a position to repel the attack. However, Tehran in its desperation may decide to target oil installations of some of the neighbouring Arab countries pushing up the price of oil even higher.
Q: With the US elections looming a steep rise in oil prices would not be good news for the ruling Democrat Party. Would it?
A: No, it would not. I presume that is why President Biden has cautioned Israel against any strike on oil installations.
Q: But why has the President also asked Israel not to bomb Iran’s nuclear installations?
A: That is rather curious. I can imagine a few reasons for that. One could be the question of safety and any possible radiation fallout from the bombardment. I would have thought that was rather unlikely though, but I am not an expert in the field. Another reason could be the reaction of the Islamic Republic, widening the conflict just before the US elections. Last but not least the US may believe that the demolition of the nuclear facilities by Israel could pave the way to fundamental political changes on the ground in Tehran. Washington at present may not have yielded to that it seems.
Q: What do you mean by that?
A: It is quite plausible that Israel wishes to disengage and preferably demolish Iran’s nuclear installations before any political changes in Tehran. And the US is probably well aware of that.
Q: I am still not sure I can follow you.
A: Well, you’ll have to read between the lines.
Q: Where does that leave Israel then?
A: Well, Israel will in the end do what it considers vital to its interests. Of course, it will always have US views and interests in mind, but the past year has demonstrated that Netanyahu can outmaneuver the White House if necessary. The rather weak leadership of Washington in global affairs in the last few years has opened up space for boldness and defiance in the international arena. We have seen that in Ukraine and in the Middle East.
Q: Will a Republican administration in the US change anything in that area?
A: Donald Trump certainly thinks so. And there are some grounds for believing him. His record in the White House shows a more peaceful international relations and the fact he did not shy away from bold decisions he considered necessary. Two major items in his foreign policy concern US allies and enemies. His approach to NATO and his position on globalization.