RAdm (ret.) Stathis Kyriakidis, Board Member of Strategy International, writes in ‘Vradini’, on the geopolitical implications of the US-Israel attack on Iran. He evaluates three possible scenarios:
- Civil conflict and fragmentation: A civil-war scenario similar to Syria, with regional autonomy and possible secessions.
- Restoration of the monarchy: The return of the Shah’s heir, Reza Pahlavi, as a symbol of transition.
- Negotiated compromise with reforms (most likely): A negotiated settlement with a new leadership in Tehran, including: limits and monitoring of the nuclear program, economic opening (energy and hydrocarbons), and gradual reforms ensuring regime survival
