The Iranian ballistic missile attack against Israel represents an escalation problem for both countries. Earlier this year a limited exchange of direct hostilities took place between the two countries, with Iranian drones attacking Israel directly and Israel attacking Iranian targets inside Iran as a limited proof of concept that It can reach the Persian homeland.
Strategy International
Commentary: Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel may mark a significant escalation of hostilities between the two countries
The author of this article is Dr. Josef Demergis.
The Iranian ballistic missile attack against Israel represents an escalation problem for both countries. Earlier this year a limited exchange of direct hostilities took place between the two countries, with Iranian drones attacking Israel directly and Israel attacking Iranian targets inside Iran as a limited proof of concept that It can reach the Persian homeland.
The direct attack with ballistic missiles against Israel, is certainly an escalation in lethality and in the manner used to strike targets by the Iranian side. Israel has been highly successful in attacking Iranian proxies in the area that have been used historically to indirectly harm Israel, with both sides avoiding direct confrontation.
The IDF certainly has the capability to strike deep into Iran, with its nuclear processing and research facilities a prime target, along with other installations that produce military hardware of a strategic nature.
Whether it will choose to do so in an escalatory manner, rather than a tit for tat exchange remains to be seen and may not necessarily be a decision that will not be hotly contested along with the world’s only superpower.
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East is bound to affect the Ukrainian battlefront as well, while Israel may find itself strategically stretched in conducting war in multiple fronts.
Groups such as the Houthis may also play a prominent role in the strategic deliberations, since equipping their forces in the Red Sea with more advanced weaponry by Iran and possibly Russia, will escalate a big problem for world shipping to a gargantuan one.
The Iranian leadership is also desperate to ensure its own political survival and the continuation of the regime, something that has taken a heavy beating along with the Iranian proxies in the Middle East.
Escalation that runs unhindered is not desirable for all sides, despite the public rhetoric, but neither is it unfathomable.
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