The author of this article is Dr. Josef Demergis.
1- What are the key dynamics driving the recent escalation in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah?
The military operations involving Israel and Hezbollah are no longer limited in scope and scale as they were in the first few months after the October 7th operation. On the Israeli side, there is growing disagreement among and within the main pillars of both the political and military establishments. Proponents of a direct and unlimited confrontation with Hezbollah argue that the threat posed by the party of God to Israel’s security is significant. They contend that if Hamas could destabilize Israel with its comparatively limited capabilities, Hezbollah, with its greater strength, presents an even more substantial threat. This faction advocates for a radical solution—a military operation that would “eliminate” the Hezbollah threat and directly confront Iran. They believe that neutralizing Iran is crucial for ensuring Israel’s security, despite acknowledging the heavy toll such a strategy would exact on military, domestic, and international levels. This approach is viewed by some as a “necessary evil.”
Initially, most senior military commanders were not enthusiastic about this strategy. However, Hezbollah’s targeted operations over the past few months, which have caused significant casualties and damage to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), have shifted the paradigms within the military establishment toward a so-called “military solution.”
Initially, most senior military commanders were not enthusiastic about this strategy. However, Hezbollah’s targeted operations over the past few months, which have caused significant casualties and damage to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), have shifted the paradigms within the military establishment toward a so-called “military solution.” The domestic pressure resulting from the protracted displacement of tens of thousands of Israeli civilians from their homes in Northern Israel, coupled with the constant fear and economic paralysis in this region, is also mobilizing momentum towards a large-scale punitive operation against Hezbollah.
Conversely, opponents of a “military solution” argue that the costs are disproportionate to the expected outcomes. They believe that “eliminating” Hezbollah is not feasible, citing the failure to destroy Hamas as an example. These critics advocate for diplomacy and targeted actions against Hezbollah’s senior commanders, rather than a full-scale military confrontation. They also warn of potential damage to Israel’s relations with the U.S. and other Western countries, as well as international outcry over civilian casualties and destruction of civilian infrastructure.
From Iran’s perspective, two developments have driven the decision to scale up operations across Lebanon’s border: Israel’s quagmire in Gaza and the number of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior commanders. Iran views its and its proxies’ “diversion” strategy as successful in diverting some of Israel’s attention away from Gaza. Observing Israel’s struggles, Iran aims to strengthen its geopolitical leverage in the region and beyond by maintaining pressure on Israel without triggering a large-scale, zero-sum war. Unlike Israel, Iran’s leadership appears to be largely aligned in their strategy of applying sustained pressure on Israel while avoiding full-scale conflict.
2- Considering the current dynamics, what are the potential scenarios and outcomes we might anticipate over the coming months?
The situation can evolve in multiple directions, with the likelihood of various scenarios depending on several factors, including the fate of Netanyahu’s government, the increased risks of unintended incidents forcing any of the involved parties into a track of escalation, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November, and other variables. However, the two most apparent scenarios at present are as follows:
Continued Cross-Border Operations
Hezbollah is expected to persist in its cross-border operations as long as the conflict in Gaza continues. They will likely incrementally increase the level of pressure whenever an opportunity arises, while carefully avoiding the initiation of a widespread confrontation. This approach will heighten pressure on Israel to respond more forcefully, potentially leading to a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah. In such a case, it is probable that Iran would mobilize all its proxies to launch a counterattack on Israel, initiating a destructive spiral beyond the control of any involved parties. This could escalate to direct Iranian intervention, prompting reprisals from the U.S. and potentially other Western nations with a military presence in the Middle East.
From an Israeli strategic standpoint, the West Bank is the critical issue. While Gaza remains a significant concern, it is seen as a more transactional problem. Conversely, the West Bank represents a more pressing strategic challenge.
Successful Diplomatic Efforts
If diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza succeed, Hezbollah will lean towards a diplomatic arrangement that restores stability along the border. This scenario would involve a modified version of the pre-October 7 situation, ensuring Israel receives assurances against cross-border attacks targeting Northern Israel. Both Israel and Hezbollah found the rules of engagement from 2006 to 2023 to be mutually convenient. However, the current Israeli population is not prepared to simply revert to the previous state of affairs. The ingenuity of the U.S. mediator is crucial in this situation: Israel requires more than what is outlined in UNSCR 1701, and Hezbollah has no incentive to concede more than it did in 2006 when UNSCR 1701 was adopted. The mediator must present a symbolic or nominal element to both sides to facilitate agreement.
Strategic Considerations in the West Bank
From an Israeli strategic standpoint, the West Bank is the critical issue. While Gaza remains a significant concern, it is seen as a more transactional problem. Conversely, the West Bank represents a more pressing strategic challenge. So far, a combination of Israeli caution, a laid-back Palestinian authority, and substantial diplomatic pressure from the U.S., Jordan, Egypt, and some GCC countries have prevented the expansion of the conflict to the West Bank. However, this safety net is fragile. Influential forces within Israel focused on the West Bank are gaining more sway, as are Iranians who believe this front can significantly distress Israel. It is a question of when, not if, until these actors instigate actions that could push the West Bank into a destructive conflict, potentially resulting in another massive exodus of Palestinians and a destabilization of Jordan.
