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Ukraine. Resilience will win.

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Ukraine. Resilience will win.

This war cannot be compared with the wars of the Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and certainly not to any war on the African continent. It is a war that is being fought in all dimensions and will be won by the smartest, and for those who have power and will to fight. The next two months will be the most critical months since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But resilience will win out in the end.

The resilience of the Ukrainian forces determines the survival of Ukraine. On their side are the proud Ukrainian people and the civilized world.
Although in its early stages last year’s counteroffensive filled the Ukrainian people with excitement and great anticipation, it did not have the expected results.
Since then, almost six months have passed since the last major shipment of military aid that the US sent to Ukraine. And yet, despite Russian President Putin’s statements that Ukraine will not survive more than two weeks without help, Ukraine not only endured but kept almost 90% of the territories it liberated from the beginning of the invasion.
Of course, some tactical retreats were made which were necessary to preserve valuable human resources.
The above result is not due to the combat relaxation of the Russian forces. On the opposite, the Russians sent everything at the front. Artillery fire ratios had risen several times to 10:1 in their favor. Less trained Russian but well rested soldiers with plenty of tanks and armored vehicles of all types old and new.
In a chess-like war front in all physical, human and superhuman dimensions, from the front, to the cities and villages of Ukraine hilted by ballistic missiles and drones killing and terrorizing civilians of all ages, to the diplomatic marathon of Ukraine’s political leadership, amidst intense criticism of the corruption, the Ukrainian forces resisted and endured.
Focused on the enemy, they displayed unwavering discipline even when the top military leadership changed, even when many formations had to silence their artillery, even when most formations did not make the necessary rotations with fresh reinforcements.
Resilience is confirmed by the numbers, more than 1300 armored vehicles were lost by the Russian forces while the Ukrainian forces lost two hundred.
In this “chess-type” result, the change of tactics played an important role, which also marked the end of the big convoys.
Advances and evolution in the technology of tactical and operational drones and roving munitions have made large military convoys obsolete, leading both armies, especially the Russian one, to necessary changes in battle tactics.
Thus, small platoons equipped with drones, and anti-tanks have introduced a new form of guerrilla warfare with remarkable success, effectively delaying the advance of a larger and better-equipped force even with aviation covering some parts of the front line.
Even Bradley vehicles along with other agile armored vehicles proved more effective than Challengers and Abrams tanks.
Of course, Russia is also the first to turned all its industrial production to war mode to cover its losses, future operations and imperial plans, because this is the only explanation when its activities plan foresees the construction of 2500-3000 vehicles (armored and tanks) in the next 8 months. The west as a whole can meet Ukraine’s needs.
Combined with the enthusiastic mobilization (according with the numbers), more realistic and harder training and provision of full personal combat equipment, but also the air cover that will be provided by the fighting airplanes F16, in the first half of 2025 we will live in a completely different world.
This war cannot be compared with the wars of the Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and certainly not to any war on the African continent.
It is a war that is being fought in all dimensions and will be won by the smartest, and for those who have power and will to fight.
The next two months will be the most critical months since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But resilience will win out in the end.

REFERENCES

https://re-russia.net/en/review/677/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/23/us/politics/ukraine-new-american-technology.html
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kharkiv-air-strike-belgorod-ukraine-war/32754209.html
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/pentagon-ukraine-f-16s-2024/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20and%20Western%20allies,23
https://nypost.com/2024/05/04/world-news/russian-losses-continue-with-uptick-in-sea-baby-drone-use/

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