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Analysing the upcoming 2024 United States election

PUBL0113 Analysing the upcoming 2024 United States election

Analysing the upcoming 2024 United States election

With all eyes on incumbent President Joe Biden, this article aims to summarise the current state of American election proceedings and make predictions for the future.

Perhaps the headlining election for the year to come is the US Presidential race which will be held in November 2024. It is expected to be a repetition of the 2020 elections, with incumbent President Joe Biden running for re-election with the Democratic Party, and former President Donald Trump with the Republican Party. First, both candidates must be chosen in the primaries to represent their respective political party. While some might consider that an easy task as they are both household names in US politics, Donald Trump is facing resistance to his nomination.

Donald Trump’s Nomination

States such as Colorado and Maine have disqualified former President Trump from state ballots, citing the 14th Amendment as their justification [1].

According to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, no person can represent the State in public office having participated in an insurrection against it.

Following the January 6th 2020 attack on the Capitol, many have deemed Trump responsible for instigating the storming, and in December 2023, he was charged with conspiracy to defraud and obstruct the 2020 elections [2]. While it is in the right for individual states to evoke this law, it raises important legal questions on the degree to which Trump actively engaged in the insurrection, and even on the legitimacy of State courts acting over Congress. Ultimately, the US Supreme Court will decide on the legal specificities which either incriminate or absolve Donald Trump of responsibility.

The role of the Supreme Court will be imperative. Several State Courts have already said that they are waiting on the Supreme Court’s decision to allow them to also remove Donald Trump from the ballot [3]. The high court is set to hear arguments on February 8th, 2024, the first time that it is called upon to interpret this clause [4]. Some argue that because the Court “leans right”, that Trump will have no issue running for office. That is not the case. The Supreme Court judges, including those directly appointed by Trump, have voted against him in 2020 election related lawsuits and attempts to withhold documents from Congress [5].

The time sensitive, political, and moral implications of this case turn the spotlight to the Supreme Court, but ultimately, a strictly legal judgement will be made.

There are several caveats that the Trump legal team will use, including his physical absence from the Capitol, the ambiguous language of his “call to action”, and the inability of State Courts to rule without going through Congress. It is thus my opinion that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate running for Office in 2024.

Biden vs Trump: The Rematch

Since the last time the two candidates faced off, both themselves and the American population have undergone tribes and tribulations. It is no doubt that the COVID 19 pandemic left massive economic and societal losses for the average American. Given that economic policy remains the most important consideration for picking a candidate [6], the ghost of the pandemic will play a role. President Joe Biden has made some controversial, yet celebrated, economic decisions while in office, for example his $8 billion student loan forgiveness program is likely to be perceived positively by Millennials who remained loyal to their loan repayment yet felt stuck due to high interest rates. At the same time though, high levels of inflation have defined his first term, with many Americans blaming him for increasing gas, rent, and commercial good prices [7].

Trump on the other hand, is battling with the legitimacy of his campaign, but for the most part has retained loyalty from his supporters. Many Americans have also attributed positive characteristics to Trump with ‘sharpness of mind’ and ‘physical health’ giving him an edge over Biden. The battle will come down to what is a bigger concern for the American people, Trump’s ‘dishonesty and untrustworthiness’, or Biden’s unsuitability to rule [8].

If Trump and Biden are the two major party nominees, 37% of Americans expressed an interest in considering an independent nominee. Independent candidate, and prominent anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy received 18% of supporter’s backing in polls when included as an option [7].

Although unlikely to win an electoral majority, the role of independent candidates will likely make a large dent in electoral results for major candidates.

The Consequences

Depending on if Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the election, there are implications for major global issues. Firstly, the US involvement in financing foreign wars is subject to change if a Republican President gets elected. Donald Trump has expressed a desire to reduce US funding to Ukraine if he gets elected, echoing the demands of the average Republican voter [9]. Support for Israel is likely to remain consistent regardless of President, given the long history of strategic and Christian influences on US policy [10].

Recurring issues will be immigration, and trade with China, which Donald Trump has repeated his hard-line opinions on restricting the flow of people and goods into the United States [11]. Under the Biden’s administration record surges of immigrants are entering the Southern US border, with December 2023 marking 300,000 processed immigrants [12].

Regardless of who is opposing incumbent President Joe Biden, it is all going to come down to his ability to motivate his policy decisions, debate eloquently and clearly, and instill the lost confidence of the American people.

REFERENCES

[1] Quinn, Melissa. 2023. “The Constitution’s Disqualification Clause and How It’s Being Used to Try to Prevent Trump from Running for President – CBS News.” Www.cbsnews.com. September 13, 2023. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/section-3-14th-amendment-us-constitution-trump-2024-ballot/.

[2] Politico. 2023. “Tracking the Trump Criminal Cases.” Politico.com. June 13, 2023. https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/.

‌[3] Cohen, Marshall. 2024. “Oregon Supreme Court Won’t Remove Trump from Ballot for Now, Says It’s Waiting on SCOTUS | CNN Politics.” CNN. January 12, 2024. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/12/politics/oregon-supreme-court-trump-ballot-2024/index.html.

‌[4] BBC. 2024. “Supreme Court to Rule If Trump Can Run for President,” January 5, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67899435.

‌[5] Sherman, Mark, and Nicholas Riccardi. 2024. “The Supreme Court Will Decide If Donald Trump Can Be Kept off 2024 Presidential Ballots.” AP News. January 5, 2024. https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-trump-insurrection-2024-election-0baac5ba0c1868e437e365af17eeab24.

[6] Schaeffer, Katherine, and Ted Van Green. 2022. “Key Facts about U.S. Voter Priorities ahead of the 2022 Midterm Elections.” Pew Research Center. November 3, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/03/key-facts-about-u-s-voter-priorities-ahead-of-the-2022-midterm-elections/.

[7] Peoples, Steve. 2024. “Biden and Trump Are Poised for a Potential Rematch That Could Shake American Politics.” AP News. January 2, 2024. https://apnews.com/article/biden-trump-election-2024-a6c4a7518cf5a265caa6914f621bdb6a.

‌[8] Langer, Gary. 2024. “Trump Tops His Opponents While Biden Hits a New Low in Approval ahead of Iowa Caucus: POLL.” ABC News. January 14, 2024. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-tops-opponents-biden-hits-new-low-approval/story?id=106335244.

‌[9] Watson, Kathryn. 2023. “Israel, Ukraine Funding: Where the 2024 Republican Presidential Candidates Stand – CBS News.” Www.cbsnews.com. December 8, 2023. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-ukraine-funding-trump-desantis-haley-christie-ramaswamy/.

‌[10] Falk, Thomas O. 2023. “Why Are US Republicans Pushing for Aid to Israel but Not Ukraine?” Al Jazeera. November 8, 2023. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/8/why-are-us-republicans-pushing-for-aid-to-israel-but-not-ukraine.

‌[11] Colvin, Jill. 2023. “Trump’s Plans If He Returns to the White House Include Deportation Raids, Tariffs and Mass Firings.” AP News. November 12, 2023. https://apnews.com/article/trump-policies-agenda-election-2024-second-term-d656d8f08629a8da14a65c4075545e0f.

[12] Ainsley, Julia. 2024. “Biden Wants Mexican Help to Stop the Migrant Surge. Here’s What Mexico Wants in Return.” NBC News. January 8, 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/biden-asks-mexico-help-stop-record-surge-migrants-rcna132711.

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