How could Hamas have planned and executed an unparalleled terrorist attack without the Israelis getting any warning? What Hamas terrorist attack on Israeli civilian holds for the future in the region?
After the recent UN general assembly held in New York City on September 5th, the all-world community focused on the new confrontation between East and West, a renewed Cold War confrontation, and the BRICS challenge to the post-WWII institutions and international conventions. But as on Sunday morning, the first reports emerged of the brutal Hamas terrorist attack conducted against Israeli civilians in the proximity of Gaza, the world turned once again its attention to the conflict between Israel and Palestinians. As of today October 11th, the body count of the casualties, according to DW 1200 is killed and 3000 wounded among the Israelis and over 830 Palestinians as reported by ABC News quoting the Palestinian Heath Department in Gaza.
As the minister of defence, Yaov Gallant, water gas, and electricity have been cut to Gasa, and Hamas will be handled the way they have conducted themselves. This led to the belief that brutal force would be part of the strategy to seek and destroy Hamas leadership and militants.
The question, that will most likely result in time to the end of the current B. Netanyahu’s government, it is going to be, how could all this happen? Shortly after the initial reports on the magnitude of this terrorist attack, speculations started circulating on the causes that led to the failure to prevent Hamas terrorist attack. Most ironically, these speculations were generated by the renowned Israeli intelligence and IDF’s reputation and effectiveness. Initial commentators also speculated that US intelligence did not identify this potential threat, but it is vital to remember that both intelligence and defence are agencies of the states that respond and serve elected political leadership. When we analyze the current large number of global hot spots, like Ukraine, South of China, Sahel coup d’etat, migrant crises, and inflation, we cannot avoid wondering if these events are not a lack of intelligence and the causes of this failure. The job of intelligence agencies is in combination with #Strategic #Anticipation tools, to provide valuable decision-making material to civilian political leadership. In the case of Israel, only after weapons have stopped firing and duly needed investigation results are shared, we will be able to tell what did not work within the intelligence and IDF services and led to this alleged “intelligence failure”.
The immediate priority for regional and global actors is to focus on preventing this horrific terrorist event from becoming the cause bellum, of a larger conflict in the region. Many bad actors are at work to foment political groups, on both sides of the fence and respective populations to escalate the confrontation. The level by which IDF will conduct its operations will define the response of other countries in the region.
It is undoubtedly the desire of the Israeli government to inflict a mortal lesson on Hamas terrorist leadership. The dilemma for the Israelis is how to achieve this objective taking into account the complex environment of urban warfare, the reaction to possible large-scale Palestinian civilian casualties, and the lives of the multinational hostages in the end of Hamas militants.
Israel’s response and its impact on the process of relation normalization with other Arab countries is now the focus of intensive US and EU mediation, while Russia is not missing an opportunity to through additional “oil on the fire” blaming the US, while supply most of the weapons used by Hamas for this attack, as per images on BBC, France 24, DW and CNN.
While this terrorist attack reverberated all over the world, the US was the first to express its full and unconditional support to Israel. Despite an unprecedented institutional crisis with the US speaker of the house post vacant, and with a reluctant part of the US Congress to support Ukraine with more military aid. Bipartisan support was given to Israel, perhaps in a purely political calculation given the importance of the Jewish community as an important electoral base and the upcoming 2024 US elevations. It is difficult to estimate how much this has weighed in the decision to support without much debate Israel and in the urgent shipment of ammunition to Tel Aviv, but given the harsh debate on budget-balancing, when discussing support to Ukraine, and the lighting speed by which support was given to Israel, the question on how US domestic politics influence now more than ever US foreign politics and strategies.