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War rising in the Middle East: October 2023, 50 years, since the Yom Kipur/October 1973 War.

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War rising in the Middle East: October 2023, 50 years, since the Yom Kipur/October 1973 War.

Israel is now at War with Hamas and Hezbollah. What happened so far and what to expect from. An operational analysis of various events as they progress.

In a video that was aired on 7 October 2023, following the sudden Hamas attack in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, declared the nation “at war status.” He called an emergency meeting of his security officials, and following this, the IDF of Israel called. 

Gaza militants have infiltrated Israel from several locations, creating various openings in the wall separating Gaza from Israel in its status, according to the New York Times, which maps the different areas of attacks. At the same time, militant attacks took place from inside Gaza to various locations in Israel through heavy barrage of rockets toward central and southern Israel, as per the announcement of the Israeli military. According to the IDF forces, more than 3000 rockets have been fired upon, with more than 20 Israel communities being targeted. More so, terrorist activities take place with rampages invading homes, killing cold-blooded, innocent people—taking various hostages and, more so, multiple ages. 

The attack is a terrorist “surprise attack.”

Mohammed Deif, tenuous leader of the group’s military wing, stated, “This is the day of the greatest battle to end the last occupation on earth,” adding that 5,000 rockets had been launched”. While Israel was seen to be in total shock, its security forces and civil protection mechanism seemed to be organizing for the long battle period. While the armed forces secure the war-torn cities and 20 or more community areas of Ashkelon, Tel Aviv, Sderot, Ofakim, Beeri Kibbutz, Tamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s security minister, declared a state of civil emergency, giving police additional powers to carry out raids and arrests in the middle of the highways and streets to secure areas. 

The attack on Israel is conducted in parallel by air, land, and sea, using hybrid methods of attacking, weaponry, and technology. It seems to have been very well calculated with a tactical/operational approach that resembles an initial analysis as a preparation methodology that may have come from various training and funding sources. It is marking the war situation besides sudden but hybrid methodology attacks.

We can see drones, rockets, light infantry, light vehicles, kamikaze-style, and naval attacks to confirm diverse attacks. In the news aired by various media as an example to be added, the Israeli Navy aired a video through public social media firing explosive rounds at small boats moving at full throttle towards seashores of south Israel. This method is familiar to those with expertise in small maritime attacks. 

By Sunday, 9 October 2023, the world is shaken to learn that Hezbollah is now attempting to join forces in various attacks. But it was somehow expected as the call from Hamas related to political will and sentiment toward other related groups. According to the National, “Hezbollah launched artillery and guided missiles at Israel following Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip. The Iran-backed Lebanese militia said that the attack targeted three posts, including a “radar site” in the Shebaa Farms, which Beirut views as Israeli-occupied Lebanese land.” The Associated Press mentions following a night of terror, “Israeli soldiers battled Hamas fighters in the streets of Israel’s south on Sunday and exchanged strikes with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group in the north, while Israel’s retaliation strikes leveled buildings in Gaza. The prospect of Hezbollah joining the fighting a day after the sudden attack of Hamas from Gaza raised the chances of a broader conflict”.

Israel is safe to assume that it will completely restructure its security architecture. Its security apparatus.

By the morning of Sunday, 8 October 2023, the Times of Israel reported that more than 400 terrorists had died in night fighting. Civilians are still in their shelters or community shelters, if any, in fear of roving terrorists, which have led to more than 250 dead innocent people and more than 1590 injured, according to Haaretz. Troops are in the shoot-to-kill process against the “Qasam Brigades,” as they call themselves, in their attempt to release. 

IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said that during the night (of Saturday, 7 October to 8, “we gradually evacuated” residents from some of the communities where terrorists had infiltrated and that there are now “tens of thousands” of Israeli combat soldiers in the area. While “Hundreds of thousands” of reservist soldiers have been called up,” according to the Times of Israel. To date, the announcement, IDF airstrikes hit 426 targets in Gaza, including tunnels, Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure, and high-rise buildings housing Hamas assets. He said that one hundred “immediate threats” were countered, and hundreds of Hamas launch sites were bombed. Hundreds of tons of munitions were used in the strikes.

The attack is a terrorist “surprise attack.” According to sources from Israeli institutes and experts such as Kobi Michael of the INSS and Strategy International, “this is the result of colossal intelligence and operational failures, with costs higher than what they seem, and which will be seared in the national consciousness for many years”…According to Michael, “the Hamas attack is the price of failure of the paradigm of restraint, containment, and addiction to calm, which has accompanied Israel since 2009”

This is the first time since 1973 when Israel declared a state of War through the announcement of its Prime Minister. All events take place on the 50th anniversary, which has significant importance and impact, and market impact is to be visible by Monday, 9 October 2023, on world economic affairs. 

In October of 1973, an Arab-Israeli War took place. It lasted for three weeks. Yet it shook the world economy. It culminated in the known as Camp David Accords. 

Terrorism is terrorism. And this sudden attack is a terrorist method of attack.

For the Israelis, the War of 1973 is known to the Israelis as the “Yom Kippur War” and to Arabs as the “October War.” An attempt for the then Egypt and Syria launched a two-front attack on Israel to regain their territories lost in the 1967 “Six-Day War” when Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt and Syria’s Golan Heights.

By 2023, 50 years on, a great deal of things have changed. Normalization efforts that were put to the test were successful; others were close to success, and others failed. More so, a fight on “actors” on and about the Palestinian case seems to change. 

It is no coincidence that terror groups have attempted to overthrow Palestinian authority rule and take over political action planning for an extended period. The political speaker of the Hamas terror group, Ismail Haniyeh , on Saturday described the operation against Israel as a “heroic epic” in response to what he called aggression of Israel—aiming to awaken the Palestinian cause for freedom. He also mentioned to fellow Arab countries that Israel cannot provide them with any protection despite recent diplomatic rapprochements. That was a clear message of opportunity. No wonder that other groups, from the Taliban in Afghanistan to the Hutis in Yemen, expressed support. And the question that may come to our mind is—assuming that the human capital is there. Who finances and trains these groups for Hybrid Terror and threats?

The events taking place put in jeopardy all related re-rapprochement and normalization attempts of relations of Israel with all Arab states. That is their primary goal. And it is inevitable that Hamas or Hezbollah would never allow such development. It the long run what takes place in the region does affect the balance state in the surrounding areas. In effect, it does affect trade routes and a global economy that is still attempting to find solutions to other pending conflicts or frozen conflicts and pending wars. 

The ongoing attempt of a possible real momentum was on the making/negotiations on the solution of a viable two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, while the possibility of normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel in now in question.

Israel is safe to assume that it will completely restructure its security architecture. Its security apparatus. It’s rapprochement to alliances. And regional approaches to security. For its citizens, residents, and allies. To define who is and who is not an ally to Israel. It will attempt to re-align its alliances format and approach structure on all levels, including business and trade. While many states around the world condemn the terror attacks from these terror groups, some regional countries and political appointees have taken a position that one may claim to support these terror groups.

On the other hand, the Palestinian Authority, without any actual political power at hand, especially after these circumstances, now attempts to grasp the “opportunity” if this is an opportunity to claim for yet another round of diplomatic attempts the wish for a Palestinian state against the aggressor accusing Israel of such a result, especially during the last period of attacks in the region of Jenin in West Bank. At the same time, Hamas and Hezbollah will attempt to emerge as militant and political powers versus the Palestinian Authority.

It is by now clear that Hamas and Hezbollah are attempting to enhance and somehow legalize their presence in the Palestinian territories, while also representation the cause for a free Palestine. To strengthen political influence towards ordinary Palestinians while showcasing “that they can”. In the meantime, in the Palestinian territories, the financial situation of Palestinians is dire, like in Gaza. There seem to be no accurate options to avoid or somehow end fanatism and extremism, especially where young people lack options to secure their actual future. 

Following the Jenin events in the refugee camp in the West Bank in the summer of 2023, retaliation was somehow expected. But as it looks, it is not under this form and extension. Among those leaders discussing the volatility of the environment were also MENA leaders such as Egypt and Jordan, who had discussed and informed on and about the eventuality of possible methods of aggressive and fatal retaliation against Israel. The environment had become insecure and volatile. It was building up. The US leadership and other regional leaderships were aware of this volatility, and as one may logically think, so were Israeli intelligence forces.

It is now apparent that the new military campaign of Israel’s “Iron Swords” will grow. It will go on and strong. Conscripts are called upon as the state of Israel, is in a state of War. And it is escalating fast. Israel is now conducting various operations and attempting to secure its current territories. But will also expand the operation of “Iron Swords” in non-controlled regions. The process will progressively grow. Both against Hamas and Hezbollah and any other form of act of terror, preventive or pre-emptively. Inside Gaza by Hamas and inside Lebanon’ controlled by Hezbollah. Hence, why does the PM of Israel say this would be a prolonged process? 

The source of Hamas’s power, military, and financial capabilities is expected to be severely attacked. Then, it is leadership. Methodology used may be methods excluded from the rules of engagement.

In the meantime, civilians in both Gaza and Israel are called upon to evacuate from regions as the death toll increases and the “war chess game area is being considered”. More than 1000 dead people are now located in Israel, to the completion of the article, was announced by the BBC. They are increasing hour by hour, the death toll in both Israel and the Palestinian Territories increased. 

Terrorism is terrorism. And this sudden attack is a terrorist method of attack. It was never to claim back territories. They never aimed to recover areas as they claim. That is why Israel called it War and they now claim that the death toll rising are war crimes. Hamas sought and seeks for bloodshed. At the same time, Israel braces for a round of progressive attacks as a response method and more. Hence, the urgent meeting of the UN Security Council was called for Sunday, 8 October 2023, while the UN Secretary-General strongly condemned the attack on Israel.

This analysis will be updated constantly.

REFERENCES:

 NY Times USA: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/07/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-maps.html 

 As per IDF announcement on Saturday 7 October 2023 since 06:OOam Israel Time on X (Former Twitter).

 NBC News USA: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-says-palestinian-militants-are-infiltrating-gaza-rcna119315 

 Mirror News UK: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/israeli-navy-wipes-out-full-31132448 

 Associated Press: https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-ca7903976387cfc1e1011ce9ea805a71 

 Times of Israel, Israel: https://www.timesofisrael.com/forces-continue-to-battle-terrorists-in-gaza-border-area-after-devastating-assault/

 Haaretz, News Israel: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-07/ty-article-live/israel-under-attack-terrorists-infiltrate-from-gaza-amid-massive-rocket-barrages/0000018b-088b-dae9-adcb-abbff50f0000 

 Times of Israel, Israel:https://www.timesofisrael.com/forces-continue-to-battle-terrorists-in-gaza-border-area-after-devastating-assault/ 

 INSS, Israel:  https://www.inss.org.il/social_media/israel-at-war-the-meaning-of-the-surprise-and-the-goals-for-the-future/

 UN News: https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142012 

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