The recapture of Ukrainian territories has started since the summer of 2022. Russia is losing a war that it should not have started. The world hopes the situation will not get out of control, as the recent events above the Black Sea between Russian jet fighters and a US drone have shown, and the armed conflict will end quickly. Time is again the judge.
The peripheral ports of the European continent, central roads and railway lines are working day and night, machinery and weapons of all kinds heading for Ukraine. Ukrainian front-line soldiers have equipment that would be the envy of many of their NATO colleagues and have proven they have the will to fight. A new contract was recently signed with a Polish company for the purchase of advanced MBSS GROT rifles. Poland and Slovakia are weeks away from delivering their MIG29s to Ukraine, while anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems and Leopard tanks along with British Challengers and American Abrams will all be ready and synchronized in the coming weeks. Corridors for the supply of spare parts and their maintenance will also be secured.
In the US and many European countries for months now, Ukrainian soldiers have been training in the most modern weapon systems available in the “Western arsenal” of NATO member countries. The same passion exist in education. The Ukrainians are well known to the author, having served and trained with them in Europe. Tough and smart fighters, patriotic in spirit, most cultured and open to new tactics, techniques and procedures.
What they need to learn better is the correct smart and economical use of expensive ammunition without unnecessary and useless operations and shots.
Operation OVERLORD in June 1944 off the coast of Normandy had it all. An ocean of weapon systems, media and soldiers trained and daring, with a passion for achieving the purpose of the operation, deceptive operations, and an enemy that was waiting well prepared with countless kilometers of defensive fortification lines. Obstacles of all kinds, the best trained units in the front line of defense and experienced officers. The English Channel separated the two armies.
Today in Ukraine are the fertile plains, large and small rivers, and the shores of the Black Sea (Efxin Pont), the Russian forces in the Crimea (ancient Tavrida), in eastern Kherson the unoccupied Zaporizhia and Mariupol. Tens of kilometers of trenches and labyrinthine ramifications on coasts, around cities and highlands. With thousands of obstacles, checkpoints and jams, minefields on side roads, farms, houses, buildings, and passages. But the same thing happens in another dimension in the atmosphere and space.
The recapture of Ukrainian territories will cost a lot of blood but it will succeed. It will have all those characteristics that military history wrote about in Normandy and it is the assessment of the author that the main front may move on the axis of the cities of Zaporizhia – Melitopol, but also see amphibious operations in the Crimea (Taurida), secret operations of special forces in the east, the same time when the Ukrainian rebel and resistance hidden forces will do their duty in the occupied territories and will hit targets and supply routes even on the territory of Russia.
This has been confirmed for months by the Russian anti-espionage and anti-sabotage services, which operate in the occupied territories looking for Ukrainian resistance cells, and this is even happening on Russian soil. Ukrainian resistance is obvious.
Russian forces are simply gaining territory to lose later, gaining territory to sacrifice it in order to save what they already hold and to go as soon as possible in negotiations.
When the thousands of soldiers trained to use tanks, armored vehicles, anti-aircraft systems, amphibious unmanned vehicles and special operations forces return at the same time as Western military aid, when supply lines, essential maintenance materials are planned and secured, and when the weather allow it, the Ukrainian counterattack will begin. The date will not be far from June 6, 2023.