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China and Taiwan on a Collision Course

China and Taiwan on a Collision Course

BRIEF SUMMARY

This paper examines the possibility for China to force reunification with Taiwan. More specifically, will China have the motivation, the capability, and the opportunity to bring Taiwan into the fold under Xi Jinping? The analysis addresses three key points: (1) the importance of Taiwan for China (motivation); (2) Beijing’s military options in coercing Taiwan into a reunification (capability); and (3) the possible role of North Korea and Russia in the conflict (opportunity). Finally, the conclusion offers an assessment of when some of the military options developed in this paper could happen in the next five years, which corresponds to Xi Jinping’s third mandate. The successful takeover of Taiwan could dramatically boost China’s ambitions in the South China Sea and diminish the influence as well as the project of power of the US in the West Pacific region.

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